Some Strategies and Lessons from the Last Boom/Bust
22 December 2015
Some Strategies and Lessons from the Last Boom/Bust

This will be my last newsletter for the 2015 year. I'd like to take the opportunity to wish you all a very Merry Christmas and a relaxing holiday.
Following on from my November newsletter about property markets and possible predictions, here are those strategies I promised.
ALREADY OWN 5+ PROPERTIES
Conservative
Based on the last boom, the current boom should go for some time, and you could see property values double from March 2015 values.
If you already have 5+ properties, then the conservative option is just to sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride. Having a reasonable number of properties means that you are going to get large gains from any lift in the property market.
You will also be perfectly placed to take advantage of the following flat period. So that would be the time you would look to pick up bargains that suit your investment strategy.
If you have any lemons, you would look to sell these over the boom period, and then replace in the flat period.
Property investment is a long term gain, so sitting idle for 2 to 5 years is not that terrible. And, the slow and steady approach often wins the race!
This would be my suggested approach in general, and definitely if you are younger as you don't need to take the risk.
Aggressive
Based on the last boom, this boom should go for another four years. So the aggressive approach would be to revalue and use the equity in your existing rentals to buy some more. The more aggressive, the more properties.
The big problem is that you are really gambling on the property market and needing it to go up. The new rentals are likely to be slightly negative cash flow. If interest rates go up long term, they could be quite negative. If the boom goes for a long period, this strategy will work very well. BUT, if something changes (see below) and property goes flat or backwards, then you could be worse off, or even in financial trouble, if you have pushed too far.
Conservative & Aggressive
You should establish strategy and buying rules. If you find the right property that meets your buying rules, then you should still buy this. For example, your buying rules might be:
- In a major city
- With an 8% gross yield
- Close to a hospital or major employer.
So, if you found this in Hamilton today, it would still make sense to buy it, even if you think the market is a little over-heated.
New Investor or Under 5 Properties
It still depends on your level of risk and your level of 'greed'.
If you have no properties, and the market does boom for five years, then you will find it very hard to get your foot in the door.
Conservative
If you have high income and have a low personal home debt: An easy strategy is to buy an investment property, pay down the mortgage quickly so that it becomes cash flow positive. For example, say you have high paying jobs, have just finished paying off your house,and have $40,000 extra in savings per year. If you purchased a $600,000 house in Rototuna, with a 100% debt, it will be negative by around $4,000 per year. But if you can pay off $160,000 over the next four years, this rental would start to turn a profit and pay for itself. You could continue to pay down this property, and then when the debt is at a low level for your personal risk, you could buy the next rental and slowly pay it down. The cash flow from the first rental would then start to pay off the second.
If you have lower income, or still have a high personal home debt, then you need income. You need to buy around a 7% Gross Yield for the rental to pay all the expenses at current interest rates of 4.6%. So you need to look at rentals with multiple income streams to give you a higher yield. For example, it could be a block of three flats, or a property where you can subdivide or build a minor dwelling, or even just an apartment where you can add a bedroom.
With any strategy, be careful of interest rate rises and fix a portion of the longer term to reduce this risk.
Aggressive
Trade properties to create cash flow and equity, that can enable you to buy more long term holds in the future, and reduce your personal debt. Trading properties is hard work and there are some catches. If you are a Coombe Smith paying client, then we have some great trading notes we can give you.
Gamble: If you are on lower incomes and still have a higher personal debt: A lot of investors buy a negative property and just hope (or gamble) that the property will go up in value more than the cash loss. The cash loss is sometimes financed by debt. This is a risky approach and lots of investors have come undone using this approach. If you were looking at taking this approach:
- Try to buy under value, to give you a buffer (my current favourite trick is to knock on the neighbour's door, say you own the rental or house next door, and you were wondering if they were thinking about selling?)
- Buy in capital gain areas, and look at population numbers to ensure it is growing.
- Be very careful about the cycle. If the market flattens, you do not want to be left with too many properties!
- Still be a bit conservative and don't push it too far.
- Make sure your structure is tax effective, to reduce the cash flow drain. Also, Special Tax Codes can help, but with really low interest rates, I would try to avoid requiring one.
- Still plan for interest rate increases.
- Hamilton had a flat period of around 7.5 years from September 2007 to March 2015. You need to think long term and allow for a possible and/or probable future flat period in your gamble.
I look forward to hearing from you in the New Year.
Kind regards
Ross Barnett









Using multiple banks is a common way of reducing risk. If you have all your assets and properties with one bank, then they have a high degree of control over you. If things go wrong, then they could force you to quickly sell properties or assets that might not be in your best interest overall.

